Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Fault Detection in Solar Thermal Systems
Abstract
One approach for detecting faults during the operation of solar thermal systems is to compare measured to simulated heat flows in e.g. the secondary solar loop. For detecting faults, it is essential to have knowledge of the uncertainty in both measurements and simulation. Uncertainties in the simulation caused by uncertainties of the system parameters and of measured input data have been analysed. Furthermore a local sensitivity analysis, a minimum-maximum analysis and a Monte Carlo analysis have been carried out that describe the effect of parametric and data uncertainties on the simulated energy yield of typical solar thermal systems. These have been applied to four ‘typical’ solar thermal systems that are simulated in TRNSYS 17.