PV Power Production Estimation by Using Radiometric and Meteorological Data
Abstract
World total installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity reached 320 GWp by the end of 2017. New market shave shown a rapid development in the implementation of large PV plants connected to the grid, but it is needed to face new challenges to overcome barriers for the massive deployment. The incorporation of renewable energy sources, such as solar, can affect the stability of the electrical grid. Predicting the energy production of PV plants is crucial for the massive integration of PV technologies in the grid. The aim of this research is to estimate the energy production within an infrahour period using minimal knowledge about weather conditions. In order to achieve this goal, a mathematical model is proposed which directly computes the energy as a function of module temperature and the available solar resource. The results of the model validation test show a root mean square error value of 6.42% and an mean bias error value of 1.51% and a good performance regardless the sky condition.