Development and Comparative Analysis of a Bottom-Up Heat Demand Modelling Tool With Existing Heat Demand Estimation Methods for Germany
Abstract
Demand modelling is an integral part of energy system modelling and the accuracy of an energy model depends highly on the precise value of demand. Taking into account the limited number of open-source heating demand modelling tools available, this paper aims to present a new bottom-up simplified heating demand modelling tool that can create heating curves of high resolutions for any geographical locations and different building types. The tool is a physical model of demand modelling based on general heat balance equations for buildings. A comparative analysis of the outputs obtained from this tool with existing open- source heat demand modelling tools is then carried out. The results of the simulation shows that the heating duration curves obtained are very comparable to the outputs from the BDEW heating profiles that are considered to be the standard heating load profiles for Germany. On the other hand, the output from VDI 4655 that uses a generalized method and input parameters deviates the most, both in terms of peak demand and heating curve.
Keywords
Demand modelling, Open-source, Bottom-up, Heating demand, Physical model, Demandlib, Demand.ninja, Vdi 4655