Forecasting Global Horizontal and Direct Normal Irradiation in the Arabian Peninsula: Sensitivity to the Explicit Treatment of Aerosols
Abstract
Global horizontal (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) predicted using an operational three-dimensional atmospheric meteorology-chemistry model and a triple-nesting configuration over the Middle East with a focus on the hot desert climate of UAE is presented. The model runs every day, providing solar radiation components and air quality variables with a temporal step of one hour and a horizon of 72 hours. The model performance was assessed with measurement data of solar radiation from a ground monitoring station in Dubai (UAE) col- lected over one year, from January to December 2022, of representative and distinct meteorological regimes. We have examined the ability of the model to forecast GHI and DNI values under the RRTM (Rapid Radiative Transfer Model) and different shortwave downward radiation parameterizations. On an annual scale, the GHI and DNI displayed a mean rMBD of 0.51% and 18.7% and rRMSD of 21.6% and 69.7% respectively. The in- troduction of advanced treatment of aerosols dramatically improves the model performance in predicting GHI and DNI.
Keywords
Solar radiation, desert dust, nwp model, middle east, Wrf-chem, Rrtm, Aerosol