A preliminary scenario modelling tool to investigate resilience, renewable energy integration, and multi-sectoral decarbonization in Pacific energy supply chains: Fiji case study
Abstract
Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) are heavily reliant on fossil fuel imports to fulfill their energy needs, resulting in high and volatile energy costs. As a result, most PICTs have ambitious renewable energy targets as a means of reducing reliance on imported fuels, lowering energy costs, and mitigating the emissions associated with energy production, and there is increasing interest in electrification of transport and other sectors to advance decarbonisation objectives. However, the adoption of renewable energy and broader decarbonisation efforts have been limited, amongst other factors, by a lack of appropriate tools to support energy planning across these economic sectors. This study presents the development of a preliminary open-source scenario modelling tool – the Energy Transition and Resilience Planning Tool (ETARP) – to investigate energy resilience as well as the impacts and requirements of transitioning to renewable energy and electrifying various economic sectors to meet strategic energy and emissions targets in PICTs. To demonstrate the capabilities of the tool, Fiji is adopted as a case study for the Pacific. In particular, scenarios for its net-zero and 100% renewable energy targets are parametrised and investigated in terms of resilience, fuel imports, energy supply and consumption, and emissions.
Keywords
Pacific, Renewable energy, Fuel imports, Scenario modelling, Sectors, Tool, Planning, Resilience