Decarbonizing Industrial Heat in Central Asia: A Case Study on Parabolic Trough Collectors under Tashkent Conditions
Abstract
Decarbonizing industrial process heat is critical for meeting global climate targets, yet developing economies heavily reliant on fossil fuels face severe barriers, including economic constraints and catastrophic wintertime air pollution. Here, we present a comprehensive techno-economic and environmental optimization of parabolic trough collector (PTC) systems for solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP), using the highly polluted, fossildependent urban airshed of Tashkent as a representative model. By simulating scenarios across varying capacities (5–20 MWth) and temperatures (60–390 °C), we identify critical design thresholds for the solar multiple and thermal energy storage. We show that optimized low-to-mid-temperature configurations achieve a ~46% capacity factor with a levelized cost of heat of ~3.6 ¢/kWhth, while high-temperature setups optimize at a ~41% capacity factor with a cost of ~4.0 ¢/kWhth, both successfully outperforming current European benchmarks. System robustness is verified through comprehensive multi-factor sensitivity analyses encompassing both meteorological attenuation and macroeconomic shocks. Furthermore, we quantify the substantial reductions in CO 2 , NOx, SO 2 , and PM2.5 emissions achievable by displacing fossil-fueled boilers during peak smog seasons. Our findings demonstrate that appropriately sized PTC-SHIP systems are not only technically feasible but economically highly competitive in emerging markets. This provides a replicable, costeffective pathway for policymakers to simultaneously decarbonize industrial heat and drastically improve urban public health in the Global South.
Keywords
Parabolic trough collector, levelized cost of heat, System Advisor Model, industrial heat, thermal energy output