Territorial Viability of Photovoltaic, Battery Storage, and Hybrid Systems: Profitability Thresholds in Chile's National Electric System
Abstract
The growing penetration of variable renewable energy in Chile has been modifying the temporal structure of prices, generating frequent daytime depressions and potential opportunities for energy arbitrage through storage. This phenomenon, combined with the marked gradient of solar irradiation that decreases towards the south of the country, raises questions about the economic viability of these technologies outside the desert areas where these projects are traditionally located. This study comparatively evaluates the economic viability of photovoltaic (PV) systems, battery storage (BESS), and hybrid configurations (PV+BESS) in eight utility grids of the National Electric System, using hourly data on marginal prices and solar generation. A low computational load model based on reference capacities and hourly valuation is adopted, appropriate as a first geographic filter. The results show differentiated viability according to technology and location: PV is attractive where the average solar price is high; BESS requires significant night-day differentials; while PV+BESS presents more homogeneous profitability across territories. Indicative viability thresholds are proposed, noting that, in daytime saturation scenarios, the price structure predominates over the solar capacity factor as a determinant of profitability. These conclusions are framed within the model's assumptions and motivate extensions that incorporate degradation and variable storage efficiency, as well as multiyear analyses.
Keywords
photovoltaic systems, battery energy storage, PV-BESS hybrid systems, energy arbitrage, price-resource decoupling, profitability thresholds, Chilean National Electric System