Forecasting Photovoltaic Module Waste Generation in Brazil: a Prospective Analysis
Abstract
The growth of solar energy in Brazil is beneficial for both the environment and the country's energy supply. However, it poses challenges related to managing the end-of-life of solar panels. This study aims to estimate the amount of solid waste resulting from the future end-of-life of these panels in Brazil, focusing on the period 2042 to 2049, using data from the National Electric Energy Agency and technical parameters obtained from reports by international agencies. This is a quantitative, descriptive study based on technical parameters, including power per panel, predominant technology, estimated useful life, and historical solar energy generation. The results indicate that panels installed between 2017 and 2024 could generate up to 2.1 million tons of waste, including approximately 631 tons of lead. There is an urgent need to develop public policies that effectively manage photovoltaic waste, thereby mitigating environmental and public health impacts. This work contributes to the understanding of the problem, stimulates debate on sustainability in the solar energy sector, and proposes a replicable prospective model for national estimates of photovoltaic waste.
Keywords
Photovoltaic Energy, Solid Waste, Solar Panels, Sustainability, Environmental Policy, Lead