Climate Change Impact on Fixed, One-axis, and Two-Axis Solar PV Technologies in Brazil
Abstract
Solar energy is a key driver of the global energy transition, with photovoltaic (PV) capacity expanding rapidly worldwide. However, climate change is expected to alter renewable resources, including solar irradiation, in spatially and seasonally heterogeneous ways. These variations, combined with the different performance of fixed-tilt and tracking PV systems, can lead to positive or negative shifts in electricity generation and influence the regional cost of solar energy deployment. This study quantifies the performance gains of oneand two-axis tracking systems relative to fixed-tilt configurations under current and future climate conditions in Brazil. A geospatial analysis was also conducted to identify suitable areas for utility-scale PV installations and to evaluate their corresponding levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) across the country. Results show that tracking systems provide an annual energy yield 34–43% higher than fixed panels, with the greatest advantage observed between April and July. Under climate change scenarios, solar generation potential increases across most of Brazil, except in the South, where a slight decline is projected. Overall, the effects of climate change are modest but predominantly beneficial, leading to LCOE reductions of approximately 0.6–1.1 US$/MWh in large portions of the country and reinforcing Brazil’s strong potential for resilient, low-cost solar expansion.
Keywords
solar energy, climate change, tracking systems