Assessment of the Performance of Climate Models Downscaling for Solar Radiation in Brazil

de Jesus, Hallan Souza, Goncalves, Andre Rodrigues, Costa, Rodrigo Santos, Lima, Francisco José Lopes, Borba, Paula Conde Santos, Cumplido, Meiriele Alvarenga, Pereira, Enio Bueno, Martins, Fernando Ramos

ISES Solar World Congress 2025 · Fortaleza, Brazil · 2025-11-03
Published by International Solar Energy Society (ISES)
DOI: 10.18086/swc.2025.04.06

Abstract

Long-term projections of solar resources are key for planning and adapting future energy systems. Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulate future scenarios, and their outputs are often downscaled to represent regional patterns and shorter timescales. This study assesses the performance of statistical and dynamical downscaling of GCMs in representing the climatology of surface solar irradiance across four regions in Brazil. Comparisons were made with ERA5 reanalysis using CMIP5/CMIP6 data from CORDEX and NEX-GDDP. Results show that CMIP6 generally outperforms CMIP5 in areas A1, C1 and D1; and statistically downscaled data yield similar mean values and climatological variability. Dynamical downscaling, however, may surpass statistical methods in specific models and regions — such as HadGEM and MPI in A1 and NorESM in D1 — while statistical refinement improved only NorESM in C1. Therefore, refinements do not necessarily improve the climatological representation of solar irradiance.

Keywords

Solar Radiation, Climate Change, Downscaling, CORDEX, NEX-GDDP

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