Analysis of the Global Horizontal Irradiation Variability From Wrf Solar for the Five Cities of Brazil

Amorim, Ana Cleide Bezerra, Emiliavaca, Samira de Azevedo Santos, Silva, Bruno do Nascimento e, de Sousa, Alan Rodrigues, Lira, André Luiz de Oliveira, Mendonça, João Vítor Fonseca, Silva, Gabriela Rocha Alves, Costa, Moisés Elias Nascimento Rufino

ISES Solar World Congress 2025 · Fortaleza, Brazil · 2025-11-03
Published by International Solar Energy Society (ISES)
DOI: 10.18086/swc.2025.04.04

Abstract

Technological and economic advances in recent years have driven the expansion of solar energy in Brazil. However, challenges remain, particularly with regard to climate variability and the scarcity of reliable historical data. This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-Solar model in estimating global horizontal irradiance in five Brazilian regions that have different climates. Two sets of parameterizations (P1 and P2) were employed and compared with observational data obtained from solarimetric stations. Typical Meteorological Years were generated based on the National Solar Radiation Database. The hourly results showed a high correlation (> 0.8) between the simulations and the observations on more than 80% of days, particularly during dry periods. RMSE analysis reinforced the model's superior performance during the less rainy months. The differences between G1 and G2, as provided by the model, highlight the importance of sensitivity tests. In conclusion, WRF-Solar is a promising tool with the potential to enhance solar energy planning in the country.

Keywords

Solar energy, Numerical modeling, WRF, FARMS

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