Forecasting PV Output During Aeolian Dust Events: a Case Study in the East Mediterranean

Kiriakidis, Pantelis, Charalambides, Alexandros G., Ioannides, Andreas, Christoudias, Theodoros

ISES Solar World Congress 2025 · Fortaleza, Brazil · 2025-11-03
Published by International Solar Energy Society (ISES)

Abstract

As photovoltaic (PV) systems expand, especially in isolated grids like islands, their performance is increasingly affected by aeolian dust events that reduce solar irradiance and soil panels, leading to unpredictable power losses. This variability raises operational and financial risks, requiring advanced forecasting tools. To address this, a new forecasting system is being developed using high-resolution atmospheric modelling (WRF-Chem) and solar radiation data from Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), combined with real-world data from over 500 PV systems over the island of Cyprus. The model aims to predict dust-related energy losses, optimise cleaning schedules, and support decision-making, with potential applications across the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East dust-prone regions.

Keywords

Solar PV, Aeolian Dust, WRF-Chem, CAMS.

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