Expectations vs. Reality: a Comprehensive Analysis of Underperformance in Brazilian Utility-scale Solar Plants

Nascimento, Lucas Rafael, Cechinel, André Luiz Prado, Veríssimo, João Paulo Alves, Pinto, Gustavo Xavier de Andrade, Campos, Rafael Antunes, Naspolini, Helena Flávia, Rüther, Ricardo

ISES Solar World Congress 2025 · Fortaleza, Brazil · 2025-11-03
Published by International Solar Energy Society (ISES)

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of 197 utility-scale photovoltaic plants (6.8 GW) in Brazil during 2023, comparing projected capacity factors with actual measurements. Results reveal that 81% of plants failed to meet generation expectations promised in their projects. The work analyzes the main causes of this widespread underperformance. Comparisons with international studies indicate this is a systemic problem in the global photovoltaic industry, highlighting the need to revise projection methods and performance evaluation of PV plants in the Brazilian context.

Keywords

PV Performance, PV energy modeling, constrained-off.

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