Economics of Global Gas-To-Liquids (GtL) Fuels Trading Based on Hybrid Pv-Wind Power Plants
Abstract
With growing demand for transportation fuels such as diesel and concerns about climate change, this paper introduces a new value chain design for transportation fuels and a respective business case taking into account hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chain is based on renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to- gas (PtG) facilities into synthetic natural gas (SNG), which is finally converted to mainly diesel in gas-to-liquid (GtL) facilities. This RE-diesel can be shipped to everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV- Wind power plants, electrolysis and methanation are done based on annual full load hours (FLh). A combination of 5 GWp single-axis tracking PV and wind power have been applied. Results show that the proposed RE-diesel value chain is competitive for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 121 - 191 USD/barrel (0.67 – 1.06 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-diesel is competitive with conventional diesel from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The cost range would be an upper limit for the conventional diesel price in the long-term and RE-diesel can become competitive whenever the fossil fuel prices are higher than the level mentioned and the cost assumptions expected for the year 2030 are achieved. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the RE-PtG-GtL value chain needs to be located at the best complemented solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy and a special focus on mid to long term electrolyzer efficiency improvements. The substitution of fossil fuels by hybrid PV-Wind power plants could create a PV-wind market potential in the order of terawatts.
Keywords
Hybrid pv-wind, Power-to-gas (ptg), Sng, Gas-to-liquids (gtl), Power-based fuels, Economics, Business model, Argentina