Performance Assessment of the ECMWF Solar Irradiation Forecast in the Pampa HÚmeda Region of South America
Abstract
The increase in solar power generation has a direct impact on the management of the electrical grid, thus knowing the resource availability for the next few hours and days becomes essential. In this article we present an evaluation of the performance of the solar predictions provided by the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in different sites of the Pampa Humeda region, located in southeastern South America. An hourly rRMSD is found that ranges on average between 24.9% and 35.5% depending on the forecast horizon. The model works best near solar noon. For the daily amounts, an increasing rRMSD trend between 15.5% and 22.5% is found for 1 to 3 days ahead, respectively. No significant geographical difference of the performance is observed between the sites in the region. The uncertainty of this forecast model is lower than other numerical models previously evaluated for the region, which is consistent with international studies in other regions.