Methodological Considerations for PV Power Fluctuation Characterization
Abstract
This study critically evaluated the methodology proposed by Mazumdar et al. (2014) for characterizing power fluctuations in photovoltaic systems using a logistic distribution. Both the original parameter estimation method and a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach were applied to assess the characterization method under its best possible conditions, with the evaluation supported by experimental data. The results indicate, with 95% confidence, that the logistic distribution fails to adequately model power fluctuations, particularly in the tail regions where extreme events occur. Additionally, this\nthis work highlights limitations in commonly used metrics for evaluating fit quality. Based on these findings, it is recommended that future studies employ comprehensive histogram analyses (on a semilogarithmic scale), broad quantile comparisons, and rigorous hypothesis testing, such as Pearson’s χ² test. The evaluation guidelines proposed here can serve as a reference for future comparative studies of characterization methods in the literature.
Keywords
PV power ramps, ramp rate, power fluctuations, maximum likelihood